The Science to Find Your Race Pace Splits
Determine Your Race Pace Backed Up By Science
Sometimes when you are in the thick of training and you aren't doing a lot of racing (or any racing at all) it's hard to know what your race goals should be.
Predicting your race pace is part science and part art. This week, I am going to write just about the science of finding your race pace, and next week, I'll talk about the art of finding your race pace.
Finding the right training pace is one thing - something I've talked about extensively - here, here, and here.
But finding the right race pace for race day is that much more important. Whether you're gearing up for a 5k or a marathon, going out at the right pace, settling into that pace, and kicking or sustaining that pace over the last 3rd of the race is important.
Your race day pace must reflect the effort and quality of work you've put in during training. If you haven't put in the training, it's hard to flip a switch and do the thing during a race.
That being said, here are some of the strategies I employ to help my runners determine their race-day pace.
1. Use another recent race to predict the race pace you will most likely be able to run. I built a pace calculator for my runners to use but there are also useful calculators online. Don't guess what pace to race at, use real numbers and make solid predictions based on science.
2. Look at your workouts and make predictions based on the results of the workouts. Don't inflate your paces because it won't reflect accurately on race day. Instead, be fair about what your workout was like and use the average of your splits (not your fastest and not your slowest).
3. If you haven't raced in a while, but you've done a decent job at training, you can compare your training from previous years to what you're doing now and figure out roughly what kind of shape you're in.
The key to finding your race pace is knowing what you are capable of and being honest with the training you're doing. Use concrete data to help you determine what you can run on race day.
Are you ready for a training plan? Send me a message and we can get started.
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On the Blog:
Mental Prep Leading up to a Peak Race
Training With a Heart Rate Monitor
And From the Newsletter:
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